My actual tech predictions for 2020
Jokes aside (or are they?), here are the trends I actually think will be important this year. (*Disclaimer: These Views Are My Own and Do Not Represent Any Organization I Am Affiliated With*)
In my last post, I poked fun at the venture capital community by making predictions about what VCs will be doing this year (from podcasting, to blogging, to generally continuing to sell themselves, as I guess I’m unashamedly doing now by posting this). I wanted to take a bit of a serious turn and talk about what I think will be the prevailing technology trends this year.
1. Consumers Will Take Privacy into their Own Hands
2019 has been rife with privacy scandal after scandal, with data breaches becoming commonplace. Netflix came out with a documentary during mid-2019 called “The Great Hack” which outlined the story of Cambridge Analytica and its claim to infamy, as well as Facebook’s inability to control 3rd parties. CCPA, California’s privacy legislation, became active at the beginning of this year. And despite all of the media attention around privacy, somehow people still don’t know what information is floating around about them and how they are being targeted.
I think many of us young’ins generally don’t mind targeted advertising, but problems come when lax organizations with treasure troves of data fall prey to bad actors (who seek to gain access to our information). Seemingly benign data (where my parents grew up, my cat’s name, and what college I went to), can all be used to steal my identity and my livelihood.
Corporations today are purchasing data governance software like BigID, OneTrust, Ethyca, and Osano in order to keep up with new regulation; this software helps them map the flow of our data, get an inventory of the data they have on their users, and automate user data requests and opt-outs. However, consumers will want to have a full data inventory and footprint themselves, across all of their digital profiles. Here comes the opportunity for consumer-first privacy applications (such as Jumbo Privacy) to rise, and I think 2020 will be the year they do.
2. (Slow) 5G Rollout Will Create Future Need for Content
5G promises two main improvements: network speed and latency.
Speed: 5G promises 10x faster download speed.
Latency: 5G is expected to create great improvements in latency (10x lower than 4G), providing 1-10 ms latency.
5G rollout in the US has been slower than expected, and it will take a few years for consumers to switch over to 5G-compatible devices. However, I will be paying more attention to progress towards the second half of the year as roll-out intensifies (5G iPhones scheduled to launch in Fall 2020).
As a result of the expected improvements, the quality and speed of video, particularly live streaming, should improve. Live events, esport streaming, traditional sport streaming - anything that requires real time and/or high-resolution video - will see a spike in viewership and usage, in my opinion. And with rising demand, there will hopefully be supply to meet it and mainstream means to watch.
*Maybe even VR will come back in the new streaming paradigm, who knows?*
When it comes to 5G, technologists also talk about the technology acting as a catalyst for mass proliferation of autonomous vehicles and smart cities - but based on 5G timelines it doesn’t seem to be happening this year.
3. Shakeout Across All Next-Gen Consumer Brands (Apparel, Food, Financial Services, etc.)
Direct-to-consumer (D2C) companies such as Casper and Away were lauded as brands and business models, due to their ability to market and sell directly to their consumers over digital channels (developing a tighter relationship and, theoretically, more attractive margins). Turns out, the money that consumer brands used to spend on brick and mortar locations or through retailer wholesale deals ended up shifting toward marketing and advertising on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter. As a result, “CAC (customer acquisition cost) is the new rent” has become a mantra across the consumer tech community. With Casper IPO-ing and VCs pouring a large amount of capital into D2C brands last year, it is only a matter of time before a shakeout occurs this year.
Whereas in the past, companies could continue burning vast sums of cash with the expectation of raising more capital, this seems to no longer be the case. The second half of 2019 saw a large amount of public investor backlash against high-growth, high-burn IPOs (such as Uber, Lyft, Peloton), and this negative sentiment has trickled down into private markets.
In a world where capital dries up and the marketing hose is turned down, only the companies with a real brand story, loyal customers, and omni-channel customer acquisition will survive. The others, who gained their massive customer bases with VC cash, will run out of money and be forced to sell at a discount or die. Keep a close eye on the subway ad companies, I bet only a couple of them will still be around as purely digital D2C companies by the end of this year. Omni-channel will rule.
4. AI is Still a Thing
AI/ML blah blah blah, automation blah blah, robots taking over…we get it. AI was a thing in 2018, 2019, and will continue to be a thing in 2020. Hopefully we’ll all stop using it as a tagline/buzzword and those who don’t care about data and automation will get it together.
5. I predict this blog will grow in reader numbers. And if you think that’s a cop out, cut me some slack. Four felt like a bad number of predictions but I really didn’t want to pretend to have a fifth.
I’m sorry I told you I’d be serious - that was a lie. Thanks for reading all the way through, and if you think there’s anything I’m missing let me know. And if you’re working on anything interesting across media, financial technology, privacy, or consumer tech, I’d also love to know. My email is rachel.lauren1015@gmail.com